The STARS4Water project has released a report on the “Added value of data-driven models and data services”. The report provides an overview of newly developed or improved data-driven modelling tools for assessing future water resources availability in the seven STARS4Water River Basin Hubs, discussing also how the stakeholders supported the process of calibration and validation of the improved model frameworks. The presented case studies address reservoir operation in Drammen, low-flow risks in the Rhine, water allocation in the Danube, groundwater nitrate mapping in the Duero, reservoir forecasting in East Anglia, drought management in the Seine, and water allocation of the overexploited groundwater resources in Messara.
The models were calibrated and validated using improved datasets and methods such as multi-objective optimisation, split-sample testing, and k-fold cross-validation. The calibration and validation processes also incorporated scenario modelling to test the models under future climate and socio-economic conditions. For example, the Rhine basin models integrated KNMI’23 climate scenarios to predict water shortages by 2050, while the Seine basin models evaluated reservoir management impacts under low-flow conditions.
The report highlights the added value of combining new data services with local knowledge and implementing a stakeholder-driven approach which leads to increasing trust and confidence in the basin-scale modelling framework. This added value stems from collaboration at every stage, starting with understanding and identifying the water management challenges and specific needs in the basins. Stakeholders contribute by helping to improve the accuracy of models through feedback on calibration and validation methods. They also play an important role in ensuring that the models are practical and relevant for real-world use, and they can adequately support decision-making for resilient and sustainable freshwater resource management.
More information can be found in the following STARS4Water project Deliverable: Preiml, M., Klösch, M., Glas, M., Graf, T. & Habersack, H. (2025): Added value of data driven models and data services. Horizon Europe project STARS4Water. Deliverable 4.1
